Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC

Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC




Hardcover
February 1998

Paperback
April 2000


2009  Events     


December 19, 2009: As part of Financial Sense Newshour's review of 2009, Louise is interviewed by Jim Puplava and John Loeffler. Topics include current technical conditions in the equity markets, energy, gold and a glance at the beginning of next year. MP3 of the interview is available at:
netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-1219-3a.mp3 (right click to download, 15MB). Louise's segment begins at 37'25".


December 14, 2009: On BNN's Trading Day (CTV) Louise is interviewed by Martin Cej and Frances Horodelski about the technical condition of the equity markets, gold and oil. Video of the interview is at: watch.bnn.ca/#clip246112.


December 9, 2009: Louise discusses the financial markets on Bloomberg Radio's Surveillance with Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt. Topics include the current rally in the equity indexes, the U.S. dollar and the price of gold.




November 17, 2009: In support of the Educational Foundation of the Market Technicians Association, Louise is a guest speaker at the Fundraising Reception held in the new MTA Library at Baruch College, New York City. Further information on this event is available from the MTAEF.


November 11, 2009: Bernard Lo interviews Louise on Bloomberg TV's "Asia Confidential with Bernie Lo." Topics include, among others, Asian stock markets and commodities. Video of the interview is available at bloomberg.com.


November 10, 2009: Louise is a Guest Speaker at the Fall Conference of the National Organization of Investment Professionals held at the Park Lane Hotel, New York City. Her topic: A Technician's View of the Market.


November 9, 2009: In the Up & Down Wall Street column of today's Barron's (print and online editions) Randall Forsyth writes of his discussion with Louise concerning current market conditions.


November 5, 2009: Louise is interviewed on CNBC TV's Fast Money by Melissa Lee concerning current market conditions. Video replay of the interview is available here: www.cnbc.com/id/33687324.




October 23, 2009: Louise is interviewed by Eric King for King World News in an extended and multi-subject discussion. Topics covered include, among others, gold, stocks, bonds, emerging markets, rotation of market leadership, currency (including U.S. dollar), and inflation/deflation. An audio replay of the interview is available.

NOTE: Firefox users may be prompted to install Quicktime when visiting the King World website, but Quicktime is not needed to hear this interview. The purple podcast icon under the picture of Louise's book provides direct access to an MP3 of the interview. The MP3 is 19MB, the interview was 43 minutes.


October 22, 2009: In the "Take a Technical Analyst To Lunch" auction, conducted by the Market Technicians Association for the benefit of the MTA Educational Foundation, Louise received the second highest bid among 22 analysts, behind the first-place winner Robert Prechter.




September 25, 2009: In an extended interview by Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt on Bloomberg Radio's Surveillance, Louise discusses the current rally, especially in terms of LYA's alternate hypothesis, as well as gold, oil and more particularly the dollar. A recording of the interview will be available for about a week at the Surveillance podcast page.


September 22, 2009: Louise is interviewed on CNN Radio's The Wall Street Shuffle (Dallas-Ft. Worth) by Dan Cofall concerning structural/cyclical bull and bear markets, among other topics. A recording of the interview is available at: thewallstreetshuffle.com/podcasts/092209-Seg2.mp3




August 21, 2009: Broadcast of an extensive interview with Louise by Jim Puplava on the Financial Sense Newshour. Audio of the interview is available at www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html (select 2nd Hour Guest Experts - Part 2).


August 18, 2009: Interviewed by Erin Burnett on CNBC TV's Street Signs, Louise discussed the current action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index, including the role of volume in assessing the recent advance. Video of the interview is available at www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1218503502&play=1.


August 11, 2009: In an extended interview by Bernard Lo on Bloomberg TV's Asia Morning Call, Louise discussed the U.S. stock markets (including technology, energy and financial), interest rates, the dollar and gold.




June 12, 2009: Louise is interviewed by Pimm Fox on Bloomberg TV's "Taking Stock" concerning current trends in the financial markets, interest rates and commodities.


June 1, 2009: On Bloomberg Radio's "Surveillance" Louise is interviewed by Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt concerning financial markets and commodities.


June 1, 2009: The June issue of Stocks, Futures and Options Magazine publishes Kira McCaffrey Brecht's "Getting Technical" interview of Louise and other technicians on the topic "Is It a Bull Within a Bear?" The column is available online at: www.sfomag.com/Department.aspx?DeptID=278&issueID=c.




May 25, 2009: In the Up and Down Wall Street column in Barron's, Randall W. Forsyth discusses Louise's Alternative Hypothesis, which she first presented in 2000. The article is titled "Do Be Wary of Green Shoots" and is available at online.barrons.com/article/SB124303129632948467.html.




April 24, 2009: Pimm Fox interviews Louise on Bloomberg Radio's Taking Stock.


April 13, 2009: In Barron's Last Week Review column, Louise is quoted on the question of whether the market is forming a bottom. The full quote is available at www.barrons.com (enter "Louise Yamada" in the Search box).


April 8, 2009: Concluding the two-part interview, Randall W. Forsyth presents Louise's views on the potential effects of a reestablishment of the uptick rule. The full article (the title is "Will the Uptick Rule Save the Stock Market Again?") is available at www.barrons.com (enter "Louise Yamada" in the Search box).


April 7, 2009: Beginning a two-part interview, Randall W. Forsyth discusses Louise's views on the recent 25% runup in the indexes. The full article (the title is "The Bull Case: Not Proved") is available at www.barrons.com (enter "Louise Yamada" in the Search box).




March 19, 2009: As part of the lecture series at the Downtown Harvard Club of Boston, Louise gave a presentation on the background and study of technical analysis.


March 13, 2009: Louise discusses current market conditions in a wide-ranging, 9-page interview conducted by Kate Welling in Welling@Weeden. The full text of the interview is available at welling.weedenco.com (subscription required).


March 10, 2009: Louise's current market views are discussed in the Exchange Traded Funds: Technical Projections article by Trang Ho in Investor's Business Daily, p. A6.


March 6, 2009: Melissa Francis interviews Louise on CNBC TV's Street Signs about current market conditions. Video of the interview is available from CNBC.


March 6, 2009: In the Up and Down Wall Street Daily column in Barron's Online, Randall W. Forsyth discusses Louise's current market outlook. The full article (the title is "Getting There?") is available at www.barrons.com (enter "Louise Yamada" in the Search box).


March 5, 2009: Tom Keene interviews Louise for the hour on Bloomberg Radio's On the Economy. Audio of the interview is available at Bloomberg.com on the podcast page for On the Economy. The show title is "Yamada Sees 44% of NYSE Stocks Under $10 as `Shocking'".


March 2, 2009: With the DJIA closing below 7,000 for the first time since 1997, and world markets continuing their declines, Dylan Ratigan interviews Louise on CNBC TV's Fast Money. Video of the interview is available at: www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1050302108&play=1




February 20, 2009: As the financial markets near their lowest closing prices in years, Pimm Fox interviews Louise on Bloomberg Radio's Taking Stock. Fox notes a sense of relief among investors that the markets are not closing even lower. Where, he asks, do Louise's charts and analytical techniques indicate we are headed from here.

Rather than make long-range predictions, she replies, it is better to take developments step by step. The technical evidence over the past six to twelve months points to the downside. We have continued to lose sectors and individual stocks and now the indexes have breached below the November lows. Every rally has failed below its prior rally level -- indicating investors selling into strength -- as corroborated by the up/down volume statistics.

The evidence shows that the S&P 500 has fallen below the November lows, and even the 2002 lows, and the index looks like it will close today below 776. Both the DJIA and the S&P 500 have formed what could be defined as 10-year double tops -- if the 2002 lows are now definitively breached there is a good chance of further attrition and deterioration.

The Great Crash of 1929 wasn't the decline that wiped out the wealth. The 1929 crash was a 48% to 49% decline (parallel to 2007-2008). Then, following a rally in 1930, the Dow declined and penetrated the 1929 low, which was a critical support, and thereafter the market continued downward to achieve a total 89% decline.

The markets are already down 49%-55% from peak to trough, 2007 to today, as the 30- to 40-times leverage has been unwinding, perhaps leaving the 2003-2007 ascent as a "leveraging mirage". Breaking below the 2002 lows now could parallel the downward breach of the 1929 lows, and could trigger the possibility of another serious decline.

Bear markets have an average length of 13 to 16 years so this bear has several years yet to run. There can always be strong interim bear market rallies, of course, but the repair process needed today could be a long one. Technical analysis shows that trends tend to have relationships to one another. The bigger the drop, the longer the need for repair.

Before any turnaround, bottoms and bases must be established. Unfortunately, Louise does not yet see any bottoms or bases at this point.



February 19, 2009: Melissa Lee of CNBC TV's Street Signs interviews Louise as the DJIA and the S&P 500 hover at their Nov. 2008 lows. The technical indicators, says Louise, suggest a downward penetration of these lows in the days ahead.

Of greater concern, she continues, is a possible breach of the 2002 lows. Already half of the 30 DJIA stocks have broken the 2002 lows. Picture a wall of 30 bricks with 14 or 15 missing: how long can the wall stay up?

The S&P 500 shows an even more severe deterioration; and both indexes portray 10-year tops. It is difficult to say when a downward break of the critical 2002 lows might occur - (technical analysis does not indicate where and when at the same time!).

Gold continues, through a progression of higher lows, to advance toward the 1,100 level that Louise has projected. An important ratio to watch is the Dow/Gold ratio. A downward movement of the ratio will generally continue until it has reached a 1/1 or 2/1 ratio. Those ratios are still at bay.

The price of oil has entered a trading range with support at 32 and resistance at 48. The direction of the next move should depend on which level is broken through first. The continuation of the trading range would, of course, be welcome and permit oil to establish a consolidation.

On the horizons of the markets Louise sees more downside risk. A downward penetration of the 2002 lows would trigger targets of 6,000 for the Dow and 600 for the S&P 500. The most important thing to keep in mind at this time is preservation of capital.

Video of the interview is available at www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1040148529&play=1.



February 14, 2009: Conrad de Aenlle's New York Times article surveys three leading technical analysts. The topic: "Just How Low Can the Dow Go?"

Louise's response: "It's not a pretty picture out there." She continues: "There has been some improvement, but we've been of the opinion that it's a bear market rally. To this point every single rally has failed to get through primary resistance. We've had a series of lower peaks." Charts of the major indexes have developed triangles in recent months, with the series of lower highs tracing out the descending top line of each triangle. "Each of those lower peaks represents selling into strength," Louise explains, which is suggestive of further downside risk. "A bottom isn't a place," she adds. "It's a process."

Full text of the article is available at: www.nytimes.com/2009/02/14/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/14values.html.



February 10, 2009: Louise is interviewed on CNBC TV-India about current market conditions, both U.S. and global, and about commodities, including crude oil and gold. Video and full transcript of the interview is available at www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/news/article/news_article.php?autono=385016




January 22, 2009: In the second part of this interview article by Randall Forsyth in Barron's Online, Louise points out that during a bear market there can be impressive rallies of 20% or more but they are suitable only for nimble traders. It wasn't the crash of 1929 that destroyed stockholders' wealth but rather the subsequent wrenching declines into the ultimate 1932 lows that wiped out the bottom-pickers.

Despite recent bounces, such as the 24% upmove off the the Nov. 20 low, much technical damage has resulted from the massive declines from the 2007 highs. "There is a long repair process ahead through 2009, assuming we have even seem the ultimate lows." Although some stock groups have "outperformed" that only means they have gone down less than the major averages, and there are no groups yet in sight that appear prepared to lead a new bull market.

Typically, prior to past multi-year advances, certain groups have built bases over several years and were thus prepared to lead the advance. No such bases are evident today, so a trading environment is the best that can be expected in 2009. The full text of the article is available at online.barrons.com (enter Louise's name in the search box, the article is "Capital Idea: Preserve It" -- subscription may be required).


January 21, 2009: In the first of a two-part article by Randall Forsyth in Barron's Online, Louise's Alternative Hypothesis (which she first published in 2004) is described; the market may now be entering a difficult trading range for three- to four years. But every cycle inevitably establishes its own identy, and today's pattern might well subsequently diverge from that trading range. The full text of the article is available at online.barrons.com (enter Louise's name in the search box, the article is "History Lessons on a Historic Day" -- subscription may be required).




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Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC
P.O. Box 286829
New York, NY 10128

Phone: (212) 944-6200
info@lyadvisors.com
www.lyadvisors.com
 
Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC
P.O. Box 286829
New York, NY 10128

Phone: (212) 944-6200
info@lyadvisors.com
www.lyadvisors.COM
 Last Updated: January 7, 2016 5 PM Copyright 2005-2017. All Rights Reserved.  
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